On age, positive thinking, and luck

One of the silliest questions that I see repeatedly asked, is to ask someone who is extraordinarily old what is the secret of their great age. Journalists always ask when they cover a hundredth birthday or similar event, and the subject almost always has an answer. They shouldn't have an answer. The subject can't possibly know why they lived long. However, they will give credit to one or two of the thousands of factors in their lives, arbitrarily deciding that having a bagel for breakfast or going to bed by 9:00 is the secret to their longevity. We assume that the person has some greater knowledge as to why he or she survived than anyone else, but they don't. How do they know it's the bagel, and not good genes, or their childhood nutrition, or just dumb luck of avoiding major infectious diseases? No one can know, based on only one case, even if that one case is yourself. That doesn't mean it is impossible to know the secret of longevity. We could search for variables or genes consistently associated with old age in a large group of old people, but even such a correlation wouldn't show causation.

This is part of a more general tendency--we always find a cause, especially for success. We might be willing to attribute our failures to dumb luck, but when we succeed, whether it is in business, personal affairs, or just getting old, we always find a cause, usually something that we can control, and often it is as arbitrary at the bagel. We certainly aren't willing to admit out success is also just luck.

I would like to focus on one of the more common explanations for success, the power of positive thinking. It is fashionable in many areas to attribute success to positive thinking. In fact, it might also be a reason given for old age. People who succeed in business or the entertainment industry or sports often will attribute their success to just trying hard and believing they will succeed. It is also a popular message on shows like Oprah (The Secret, featured on Oprah, even claims you can get riches and anything you want by positive thinking alone--the universe will just give it to you). It is the theme of many movies, where the hero or heroine overcomes great obstacles with a positive attitude.

The number of people who claim that positive thinking explains their success would seem to be a strong argument in favor of the claim, but it isn't. The problem with using these examples as evidence is that we don't have a complete data set. Even if we found 90% of successful actors attribute their success to their positive attitude, it is meaningless without data to compare it to. What we need to know is how many potential actors who don't succeed also believed in themselves. If 90% of unsuccessful actors initially had a positive attitude and believed they would succeed, that would mean the positive thinking had no effect. I am sure that many people who wanted but failed to be an actor or singer or athlete had positive thinking and believed they could succeed. Those who succeeded might have had better genes, or coaches, or been at the right place at the right time. They attribute their success to their attitude, but there is no more evidence for that than for bagels and longevity.

I bring this up because I think the cult of positive thinking can be dangerous. I don't want to suggest positive thinking is bad in itself, and I suspect that negative thinking certainly can lead to failure. The problem with attributing success entirely to attitude is that it puts the blame of failure squarely on the victim. A person will believe their failure is because they just didn't believe hard enough or have the right attitude. The Secret is an extreme example of this. Believers claim you can literally wish a million dollars into existence if you believe enough. If you aren't a millionaire, it is because you let your negative attitude and doubts creep in--your poverty is your own fault. The same thing can occur at a smaller scale when the person on the basketball bench blames his failure on lack of believing rather than inferior physical abilities.

Again, I am not claiming attitude is irrelevant. Hard work and an ability not to give up too soon help us to succeed. But it is not sufficient, and frankly, sometimes a person has to realize it is time to give up and try something more likely to succeed. Like most people I have probably often attributed my failures to external factors rather than to myself but attributed my successes to myself. As I get older, I have come to believe that much more of our lives are due to circumstances and dumb luck rather than things we can control. Even our positive attitude might be attributed to our genes or how our parents treated us 40 years ago. In The Drunkard's Walk, Leonard Mlodinow documents how the CEO of a company is usually given credit for its success, but a closer look reveals it was probably due to luck. Likewise, their failures. I have had the experience of trying to overcome a problem with all my heart and believing I could, only to fail. It is easy to blame myself and believe I just didn't really try hard enough. The cult of positive thinking tells me that. But sometimes no amount of believing can overcome circumstances. This realization can be humbling and produce empathy. It means that I cannot think myself superior to someone who has not succeeded as much as myself. I was just luckier. There but for dumb luck go I.